And African Americans are 13% of the American general population.
This means that Bernie Sanders is able to mobilize 2.2% of this community, while Hillary Clinton 2.7%. A decisive 0.5%.
The data are clear: out of the South, he has about 900,000 votes less than Barack Obama in 2008, which become 370,000 votes if we consider that, in 2008, in Ohio, Kasich didn’tt run for the GOP primary.
What will happen in California? And in Arizona or New Mexico? It will happen the same thing, but with the roles reversed. Hispanics represent 16% of the population and in California they represent the 40%. They don’t vote for Clinton and, if like for African Americans with the former First Lady, will go to vote for Sanders ‘only’ 20% of them, the victory would be safe.
And in New York? Where Hispanics account for 30% and, on the other hand, African Americans 25%? Always the same reasoning: 0.5% in more of African Americans which currently vote more Hillary Clinton, would be offset and, at the same time, Bernie Sanders will increase his votes beacause of the 40% of non-white voters Hispanics, the 12% of the American general population. Thousands of determinants votes to lose a little, draw or win.