The latest polls claim that Bernie Sanders is incredibly ahead of Donald Trump by 20 percentage points.
It is a fact rather strange because, this year, the turnout in the primaries of the Good Old Party has increased considerably, while that of the DEM has collapsed.
Fortunately, the numbers are not everything, and behind each of them there’s an explanation scientic just waiting to be demonstrated as well as theorized Michelangelo when he argued that the sculpture is already in the raw marble block.
They should be considered a number of important factors such as the number of candidates, states that analyzers go to study when making their own considerations, reasons concerning the attempt by this or that to proper the hinder conduct of the election, the membership of one or more candidates to an ethnic group, the political religion that a candidate purports to represent, the state of the candidate, and much more.
We said that Sanders was in the lead by 20 points on Trump, that the turnout of DEM has declined compared to 2008, while it increased for the GOP. More specifically it’s quite different and we find out that, with regard to the Democratic Party, the turnout goes down only if Clinton wins, while climbing when Sanders wins or comes close to victory.
Nate Silver says that the turnout doesn’t correlate with the turnout of the presidential elections, I argue the opposite, I argue the tournout must be read in a different way and that turnout affects the individual candidate. Not the Party.
For this reason I wanted to study the potential vote of Vermont Senator, first of all, starting from studies carried out by Gallup in recent years.
Gallup has shown in recent years as the number of Independents has grown considerably up to break through the 42% of the American population, while the number of Americans who say they are Democrats stands at 29% and that of those who claim Republican touches 26%.
That being the case, I made a simulation starting from the famous 20 points of Bernie advantage and I found that, at the moment, the Independent voters are about 123 million, the Democrats are 79/80 million and, instead, the Republicans are 70 million. I state that I didn’t want to consider all those people who vote Green Party, or that are socialists, communists.
With this in mind, I came to the conclusion that Sanders, today, has a potential of 100 million votes that would grow further if we take into account the Democrats still reluctant to vote for it, but that still would vote if he wins the Nomination, America Preogressives, all those Republicans who would never vote for Donald Trump. The same Trump that, consequently, could count on a significant portion of voters who would be nearly 80 million votes.