Maps tell us that Bernie will win the race for the next 731 delegates.
The first ma is based on the study of trends, sentiment, and of US geographical areas. Trends tell us that Sanders has nearly reached its maximum potential but it should be clear, however, that the only time when it was reached the peak was in November 2015. Since December he hasn’t touched anymore the peaks of the last autumn.
The reason is the following: Sanders has suffered a total blackout by the media with the beginning of Democratic Primary and the serious defeats in the Deep South have demoralized ‘Deeply’ his electorate that a month ago has believed – given the young age and given the lack of experience in electoral matters – he had already lost.
It was the worst moment of Bernie campaign, who encouraged as much as possible his voters to not give up. Bernie has always known that better times would come and, at moment, he knows also that the wind in its sails isn’t enough, considering the wind so strong that it threatened to tear the sails of his boat just few months ago.
Today, therefore, Bernie scenario has been realized. The worst is over and we face a bright future. Starting from Wisconsin, where Bernie has 60%.
Regarding New York, it’s necessary to make a different reasoning because the New York challenge isn’t decisive at all. However it goes. Because in New York isn’t impossible to create definitive victories: New York will be an important building block for the construction of the wall, but not the most important.
That said, the maps are clear: Hillary doesn’t win a county since the first week of March, Bernie percentages were raised dramatically and, for example, as regards the States of the North-East Area, he even expected to improve compared to the results achieved few weeks ago.
If, for example, today we will vote in New Hampshire, Bernie would win big. And that’s not to say that in the North-East there are more Berniacs than a month ago, this electoral dynamic means that Berniacs motivation today is higher. That said, the North East is an area in which Sanders will never fall below 48-50%.
With regard to the Mid-West, Bernie has to continue with his pitch because my theories of wildfire and of the absence of very large cities is now supported by the facts. In this area who delivers few delegates, Bernie must conquer all is possible.
The last and most important area is the West-Coast. After that Bernie has won Washington with 72%, he will repeat the performance in Oregon with similar or tending downward percentages (68-70%). The result in this State will be important to understand if the wildfire has spread even to Oregon and, above all, we’ll must study meticulously the Southern Oregon to understand how it may predict a good result in North California, in the Bay area, and Central California. Unfortunately in South California it will be difficult to win with high rates.
The data in my possession are reassuring, San Diego is fascinated by Bernie narrative, but Los Angeles is a such big city, where the apparatus of the Democratic Party is so strong that Hillary will sell life dearly. I think Hispanic Community will make the difference: if Bernie will obtain 7.5% of Latinos vote in the South Area, he has won the nomination. Without a doubt.
My last clarification is dedicated to Berners. I invite you to ignore National Polls. They don’t reflect the truth. Even when Sanders has 1 point lead over Clinton. These polls don’t reflect reality and aren’t indicative. Rather, we would need to polls that take into account States and macro-areas because in this way we would know with certainty the electoral strength of the two candidates. That said, I leave you with a few questions: how many points would have Sanders if the pollsters didn’t take into account the Deep South? How many points of advantage would have Sanders if the pollsters would take into account only the areas that still need to be expressed in the Primaries? He would have, by chance, that 57% he needs to win the nomination? Definitely maybe.