The next April 26 Sanders and Clinton vie 384 Pledged Delegates in North Atlantic. Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will host one of the last battles for the Democratic Nomination.
Bernie Sanders must inevitably bring the gap from former Secretary of State under 200 Pledged Delegates but it will not be easy.
Unfortunately for Bernie, his electorate is demoralized after the defeat in New York. If only he had faced this Super Tuesday a week ago, he would have won the five states with an average of 58%. Today has been almost a week, but everything has changed.
In my latest survey, Sanders is always in the lead but this time between him and Clinton there are 5 percentage points: 52.5% to 47.5%. In this case, Sanders continues to go badly in the States that have large towns or cities and very often this factor doesn’t allow him to excel. As soon as the city becomes the city by a few hundred thousand inhabitants, he unleashes all his strength.
The second factor that forced him to retreat is the presence of large African American Community as in the case of Philadelphia and Baltimore. That said, the situation is not tragic cause Philly and Baltimore aren’t New York and don’t have the necessary minorities to prejudge the outcome of other Counties. New York City was almost as big as the rest of the State. In the case of Pennsylvania, for example, 76% of White Community Outside Philadelphia serves as a counterweight to 42.7% of the Black Community in Philadelphia.
Bernie should earn about two thirds of its votes in the age group 18-44 years: 1 million votes.
As regards the Maryland, the situation is almost identical because Baltimore is a smaller town than Phildelphia but, nevertheless, has a great African American Community that affect much on the final result (Baltimore: Clinton 60%, Sanders 40%) that according to my calculations, it will be 52.74 Sanders, 47,26% Clinton. I remember once again that if the motivation of voters Bernie Sanders returned to grow, even grow the advantage over Clinton.
In Connecticut the advantage is more solid. Sanders leads Clinton 56,16% to 43,84%. Sanders will rise 200,000 votes while Clinton 156,000. In this case, the State doesn’t have very large cities and huge ethnic minorities and Sanders should do gathering votes in outlying counties.In the case of
In the case of Delaware must be done the same reasoning of Connecticut and even here the Sanders advantage is very solid. He leads Clinton 61% to 39%. Sanders will reach 64,500 votes, while Clinton 41,200.
In Rhode Island, there should be a tie or a small victory by Sanders. Nate Silver recently had this to say that the state was an Elastic State. I confirm what was said by Nate and I repeat it. For my part the result of Sanders will amount around 51.81%.
The methodology that I’ve used for this survey is the same as for the previous survey. It must be said, however, that today as never has been so difficult predict the outcome of a US primary. The US is now a Post-Democracy led by a small elite of people willing to do anything to maintain their power.
It’s no coincidence that the Bernie Sanders campaign was completely boycotted by the media and, above all, by social media. Social media, unfortunately, aren’t what they appear and, for each Murdoch who owns Fox News, there’s a Rothschild who owns Facebook.
Facebook, in this case, considerably directs the opinions, emotions, memories and feelings of the people, operating according to somewhat obscure criteria and that, when they are not obscure, follow the logic of God’s money.
It’s for this reason that on Social Networks Bernie Sanders is a marginal phenomenon, while his campaign in a normal Democracy would be told in an extraordinary way.
In the American Primaries Sanders is the candidate which brought together more people, most of the other candidates put together, he’s the candidate who has received more individual donations, is regularly victim of fraud. Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Illinois, New York, Missouri, are just a few cases in which Sanders and his constituents have suffered the mistreatment of the Democratic Party.
Sanders is the spine of those who should narrate and, for this reason, prefer not narrate it absolutely, because its potential is huge and its electorate is infinite.
If Sanders wins would change everything and there are those who absolutely doesn’t want that to happen. What makes more angry it’s that the boycott of the media calms only now that Clinton has more than 230 Delegates Unpledged ahead of him.
These media wants to please people to ask them later vote for Clinton in the presidential elections. Returning to the poll, I would like to say that the data are pretty dancers. These data suffer from the discomfort of Sanders electorate. And, unfortunately, the discouragement may worsen as vanish.
If the discouragement does worsen, the Turnout would be affected and the ever deployed Clinton troops would be able smoothly to recover 2.6%. If the discouragement would magically vanish in these hours, 5 percentage points could become 7.5% and my prediction come true a few weeks ago.
I conclude by saying that discouragement isn’t definitive and is totally explicable. The Bernie Sanders voter, in fact, is giving way to the idea that now is useless to vote and that we must wait until the end of the primary in order to return to vote in November when Sanders will be candidate president of the Third Party.
Unfortunately these voters this possibility is still far and Bernie need to vote from Tuesday until the end because there is still a chance to win and you have to exploit it. If Sanders could win this Super Tuesday even with the numbers I’ve attached, he could gain 29 delegates, while if he could get back to the levels of a week ago would gain 53. The choice is yours.