The following article is based on a public opinion survey. The methodology considers historical survey of Pew Research and Gallup, and CNN and MSNBC Polls.
I worked on the Californian electorate dividing the Democratic electorate in age and ethnicity, I assigned the turnout consideration and I finally divided Counties in California and then in Macro-Areas.
Specifically, according to the latest CNN Poll I assigned to Sanders the 60% of White Electorate and 62% of Black Electorate to Clinton.
I remained faithful to my ‘theory of wildfire’ and I extended it from Oregon to North California to the Bay Area and Sacramento MSA.
Following the data of UC Davis ‘Center for Elecorate Change’ I attributed to the Hispanic Community the percentage of votes and the turnout to be awarded to Bernie Sanders county by county: 60%.
I also worked by age and I corroborated in this way the data of the largest research centers by aligning the percentages of voters to be attributed to Sanders and Clinton.
The current situation in California tells us that the strength of Vermont Senator is still great and he’s by far the most popular politician. He currently reaches 61.25% of the vote but, that being said, it will be important to understand how many Unaffiliated Electors and how many Hispanics will vote.
If Sanders was able to keep focused his electorate, be able to win big the most important state of America, and in so doing to monopolize the Democratic Convention a few weeks later. If that were not enough, the state would be the springboard for the creation of a new political platform and the start of the race in the upcoming Presidential Elections.