Sanders knocks Trump with 56.96%

If Bernie Sanders should win the Nomination, he would win easily. According to my recent studies, in fact, he would win against Donald Trump by ten percentage points.

The work done to achieve this result is based on historical Gallup surveys, opinion poll data, demographic data, and current polls.

As you know Bernie Sanders has had the opportunity to run as an Independent in 2012 given that he is an Independent Democrat. Which is why it’s the candidate remained in the race that attracts the most votes by the Unaffiliated.

His lead over Trump in the field of Indies is devastating and touches very high percentages exceed 25% of the total population that prefers not to become affiliated to any party.

To carry out this study, I had to work on the database of past Presidential Elections and the last Primaries. I kept the 2008 turnout for comfort despite I may believe in its growth.

Having said that I naturally consulted the most reliable websites in order to get the exact number of US voters and then divide them into Democrats, Republicans and Independents according to a historical study that I favored despite other pollsters which give almost identical results.

Having divided the electorate into three parts I assigned them a turnout that would go on the same wavelength as the turnout in 2008. Again I preferred to work on Gallup studies.

After assigning the turnout I got assigned to the two competitors, the percentage of Independents and Democrats-Leaning and Republican-Leaning. I finally got the following results: Sanders 56.96%, Trump 43.04%.

 

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2 pensieri riguardo “Sanders knocks Trump with 56.96%

  1. What you might like to consider is the demographic profile of the Bernie Sanders supporters and treat them as a representative sample at the general election. Then calculate how many of the current Sanders supporters will not vote for Hillary, will not vote for Trump and will not vote for the Greens or not vote at all if Bernie is not the nominee. Then looking at the current polls discount the percentage of support for Hillary by a corresponding percentage from those who will not support her among the Sanders supporters. Total Sanders Supports 58% + Total Clinton supporters (42%) = total Democratic Party support. If 30% of the Sanders supports don’t vote for her in the election and the Sanders supporters represent a total of 58% of all potential Democrat voters, his 30% of voters who will not vote for Hillary represent a group who should be considered at least a 15% reduction in Hillary presidential vote against Trump because the presumption in the polls is that Bernie Supporters will vote for her and that is a distortion of the truth.

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  2. PS I believe the numbers already show Hillary can not win the Presidential election. You could argue that Bernie has run a perfect spoiler campaign and split the Democratic vote irrevocably or you could argue that the Bernie Supporters will come on board the Clinton band wagon if she nominates Elizabeth Warren as her running mate but that does not guarantee Bernie supporters will switch the allegiance to the Clinton Camp in fact it confirms there is a major problem with Hillary’s credibility and she needs an Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders himself as running mate in order to win. However run the numbers again for the reverse scenario and assume Bernie is the Nominee and how many of the Clinton supporters will not vote for Bernie under any circumstances? Bernie is so popular the affect would be less the 10% impact on the general election outcome. Hillary needs Bernie but Bernie does not need Hillary and in fact she would be a detraction from his chances of winning.

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