Kentucky is similar to West Virginia. More than 80% of the population is White, the African and Asian American Communities are minorities and the Hispanics don’t exceed the 5% of the general population.
A very important Data is the very high percentage of Religious Unaffiliated: almost half of Kentuckians. In short this should be a Sanders-Leaning State. To prove it I’ve followed the West Virginia CNN Exit Poll.
I’ve assigned the percentages by gender, ethnicity and age. I’ve also calculate the final result based on negative trend of Clinton compared to 2008. This trend tell us that this year the Former Secretary of State hasn’t ever gain more votes than eight ago and she tends to gain less and less votes.
It’s for this reason that Sanders should maintain a low profile for a low turnout considered that Tuesday Clinton has lost 300,000 votes. Bernie must continue on his way avoiding to close like a clam Clinton electorate but, indeed, try to speak of his plan.
To carry out the simulation I’ve assigned to Sanders the 55% of votes by gender, the 60% of White vote, the 38-40% of Black, Asian and Hispanic vote. I’ve also assigned the 70% of 17-44 group by age as in West Virginia. Considered that Google Trends traffic and Twitter Sentiment are unchanged compared to a weeks
ago, I’ve extract the following results: Sanders 57.35, Clinton 42.65%.
The very high number of White and Religiously Unaffiliated should help Bernie Sanders to win considered he’s hegemonic in these groups in every poll. Moreover, the brutal Nevada Convention should push Bernie supporters to raise the turnout but, at the same time, there’s a risk that the purges, frauds, blackouts and boycotts suffered can bring them to give up waiting the Third Party. This would the largest defeat in the Democratic Party history: the absence of democracy.